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Bolsonaro Rides Right-Wing Surge Into Brazil’s Election Runoff
The right-wing senator finished two percentage points ahead of leftist President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, who faces an uphill battle to secure a fourth term win on October 25, and cement his legacy.
Brazil’s right-wing senator and presidential candidate for the Liberal Party (PL) Flavio Bolsonaro smiles following the partial results of the presidential election in Brasilia, Brazil on October 4, 2026. Brazilian senator Flavio Bolsonaro, son of the far-right former leader Jair Bolsonaro, finished ahead of President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva in the election on October 4, 2026, which will go to a run-off in three weeks. (Photo by Sergio LIMA / AFP)
Brazil’s Flavio Bolsonaro heads to a runoff election buoyed by sweeping gains in Congress, after a shock first-place poll finish hailed by US President Donald Trump as a “big victory”.
The right-wing senator finished two percentage points ahead of leftist President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, who faces an uphill battle to secure a fourth term win on October 25, and cement his legacy.
The 45-year-old Bolsonaro, who was little known until a few months ago, outperformed the first-round election results of his father, the far-right former president Jair Bolsonaro in 2018 and 2022 elections.
The result pushed the Sao Paulo stock market up almost nine percent at midday, as the Ibovespa index reached an all-time high of almost 210,000.
Jerson Zanlorenzi, head of the equities and derivatives desk at BTG Pactual, told AFP the market saw Bolsonaro as “more aligned with Brazil’s economic and fiscal needs.”
Bolsonaro has promised fiscal austerity in the face of rising public debt, plus a smaller state, lower taxes and a tougher crackdown on crime.
Bolsonaro’s pitch to Brazilians echoes those that have won over voters in Argentina, Ecuador, Bolivia, Chile, Peru and Colombia, among others, who have elected right-wing presidents in recent years.
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“It’s a big victory — close, but very, very big victory. Amazing,” said Trump, who has championed the rightward swing.
‘Tsunami’ against Lula
Since Brazil’s first direct presidential election in 1989 after a 21-year military dictatorship, every first-round leader has gone on to win the presidency.
Flavio Bolsonaro has pitched himself as more moderate than his firebrand father, who is still revered among many on the right and whose legacy loomed large over the campaign.
Jair Bolsonaro is serving a 27-year sentence for attempting a coup to prevent Lula from taking power in 2023.
His family and supporters believe he is the victim of political persecution and Flavio Bolsonaro has said he will seek an amnesty for him if elected.
The coup bid and a corruption probe against Flavio Bolsonaro did little to sway voters fed up with crime, violence and the battle to make ends meet in Latin America’s biggest economy.
Political analyst Thomas Traumann told AFP the election Sunday had shown a “tsunami of anti-PT sentiment,” referring to Lula’s Worker’s Party, which has governed for much of the past two decades.
This has made Bolsonaro “the favorite to win the presidency, and it could leave him in an even stronger position to govern than his father,” he said.
Campaign misfire
Bolsonaro’s Liberal Party (PL) nearly doubled its seats in the Senate and surged in the Chamber of Deputies.
Former first lady Michelle Bolsonaro won a place in the upper house of Congress and two other sons of Jair Bolsonaro won legislative seats.
“The end of the era of Lula’s Workers’ Party has been decreed,” a triumphant Bolsonaro declared on Sunday in Brasilia.
Lula will have to woo those who cast blank votes and the 33 million people who abstained — representing 21 percent of registered voters.
Lesser candidates who garnered almost eight percent of the vote are mostly right-leaning.
While Lula is revered for social programs that have lifted millions out of poverty, he and the party remain haunted by massive corruption scandals. And promises to tackle problems like violence and organized crime, which have grown in recent years, fell flat among jaded voters.
During Lula’s third term in office, inflation has come under control and unemployment fell to historic lows.
However, Brazilians complain about a loss of purchasing power and authorities are concerned about rising household debt.
“I admit I was convinced I would win in the first round. The game is about to start. In extra time, we will win over the Brazilian people,” Lula said Sunday.
Lula’s campaign focused heavily on his historical legacy.
He also honed in on the theme of Brazilian sovereignty in the face of pressure from Trump, who has imposed steep tariffs on the country and sanctioned officials.
Analysts say this may have been a miscalculation.
“Brazilians are concerned with concrete matters, such as supermarket prices, the fear of being mugged, and credit card debt, rather than abstract concepts like sovereignty or Lula’s historical significance,” said Traumann.
