WTO Hikes 2025 Trade Growth Outlook
It raised its forecast for trade volume growth in 2025 to 2.4 percent -- up from 0.9 percent in August.AI-related goods and surging exports to the United States ahead of President Donald Trump’s tariff hikes boosted global merchandise trade growth this year, the World Trade Organization said Tuesday.
However, the picture is bleaker for 2026, the WTO warned, as the impact of the US tariffs kicks in.The WTO raised its forecast for trade volume growth in 2025 to 2.4 per cent up from 0.9 per cent in August and cut its 2026 outlook from 1.8 per cent to 0.5 per cent.
“Global merchandise trade outpaced expectations in the first half of 2025, driven by increased spending on AI-related products, a surge in North American imports ahead of tariff hikes, and strong trade among the rest of the world,” the WTO said, as it published its updated global trade outlook.In a rare move, the WTO has revised its estimates several times this year due to uncertainties surrounding the impact of the new tariffs imposed by the Trump administration. Since returning to office in January, Trump has slapped several waves of new tariffs on imports entering the United States.
His administration has imposed a basic tariff of 10 percent on all countries since April, with much higher rates for some economies.“Countries’ measured response to tariff changes in general, the growth potential of AI, as well as increased trade among the rest of the world particularly among emerging economies helped ease trade setbacks in 2025,” said WTO chief Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala. But the former Nigerian finance minister said trade resilience this year should not fool countries into “complacency”.
“Today’s disruptions to the global trade system are a call to action for nations to reimagine trade and together lay a stronger foundation that delivers greater prosperity for people everywhere,” she said. The WTO’s global GDP growth projection is 2.7 per cent this year and 2.6 per cent in 2026.
